Originally Published: October 21, 2010, 07:06 AM

Sports Betting and the Laws of Chance

Posted By Diego | NBA News | October 21, 2010, 07:06 AM |

If I toss a coin then half the time it will come down heads and half the time tails. What ever the outcome on a single coin will be determined by chance and the odds of either result are 0.5. If I toss it a very large number of times, then the number of heads will be approximately equal to the number of tails; this is determined by the laws of statistics. All this is very simple and straight forward, but what happens if you try to apply these laws to sports betting? And sometimes you will find free bets on the internet.

Really this should be possible. If you take two opposing football teams, then you can assess every player in each team and assign to them a score or series of scores that represents their overall level of skill, their current form (for instance the goals they have scored or saved, tackles won or lost and so on), any recent injuries, sending off or yellow cards, any specific reason for positive or negative motivation, for instance good or bad write-ups in the media. As well as individual players you can look at the teams and the managers and apply an overall general analysis.

Once you have assembled all the data you can effectively play the teams against each other in a virtual manner in order to establish the one most likely to come out on top. If you do this through a season or through several seasons and track all the changes that occur and record the effects of these on the results, then over time you should be able to develop a model that will enable you to predict the outcomes of matches far more successfully that by just using chance and gut feeling.

Such a project would take a fair amount of effort, but if you have the time then the results could be very rewarding financially. A great place to find out the sort of data you might need is Bet Rescue.

Embed If I toss a coin then half the time it will come down heads and half the time tails. What ever the outcome on a single coin will be determined by chance and the odds of either result are 0.5. If I toss it a very large number of times, then the number of heads will be approximately equal to the number of tails; this is determined by the laws of statistics. All this is very simple and straight forward, but what happens if you try to apply these laws to sports betting? And sometimes you will find free bets on the internet. <br><br> Really this should be possible. If you take two opposing football teams, then you can assess every player in each team and assign to them a score or series of scores that represents their overall level of skill, their current form (for instance the goals they have scored or saved, tackles won or lost and so on), any recent injuries, sending off or yellow cards, any specific reason for positive or negative motivation, for instance good or bad write-ups in the media. As well as individual players you can look at the teams and the managers and apply an overall general analysis. <br><br> Once you have assembled all the data you can effectively play the teams against each other in a virtual manner in order to establish the one most likely to come out on top. If you do this through a season or through several seasons and track all the changes that occur and record the effects of these on the results, then over time you should be able to develop a model that will enable you to predict the outcomes of matches far more successfully that by just using chance and gut feeling. <br><br> Such a project would take a fair amount of effort, but if you have the time then the results could be very rewarding financially. A great place to find out the sort of data you might need is Bet Rescue.<br /><a href='http://www.slicendice.org'>Slice N Dice</a> | <a href='http://www.slicendice.org/NBA/Sports-Betting-and-the-Laws-of-Chance'>Sports Betting and the Laws of Chance</a>